Bc-beef
October 26, 2005
Associated Press / Kyodo
TOKYOóAn expert panel on mad cow disease has agreed that there is little difference in the risks posed by beef from North American and Japanese cows, paving the way for lifting the ban on U.S. beef imports before U.S. President George W. Bush visits Japan next month.
But it is unclear whether Japanese consumers will be willing to buy American beef after the ban, which has been in place for 20 months, is removed. If sales are sluggish, the United States could get even more demanding, one government source said.
The panel of scientists, which is under Japan's independent Food Safety Commission, unveiled a report on Monday saying the risk of mad cow disease being found in North American beef is "extremely low" if import terms are met properly.
An official at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said in September, "We hope to manage to give a Christmas present (to the United States)."
Although the two countries confirmed a framework last October for Japan to resume imports of American beef, talks have been deadlocked since then. This situation has sparked an outcry from lawmakers in the U.S. Congress and prodded officials at the farm ministry and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare to call for a resumption.
The government initially expected that imports would resume in the spring of this year, but the date has been postponed due chiefly to prolonged deliberations at the panel. It took five months before the panel decided on easing inspections for all domestic cows, a condition necessary for resuming imports.
Conducting a comparison on the safety of American and Japanese cows, one of the main goals of the panel, also had hit a snag because the U.S. delayed in presenting data.
The panel needs to make a recommendation by November in order for imports to resume by the end of the year, and in time for the summit between Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Bush on Nov. 16 in Kyoto.
To speed up the deliberations, the panel held four meetings this month, twice as many as in other months. Bracing itself for criticism that "the conclusion had already been made," the panel ploughed through the deliberations.
At a hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives Ways in Means Committee in late September, Jim McAdams, president of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, said the future of the U.S. beef industry depends on external demand.
He was also criticized Japan, saying the closure of the Japanese market for nearly two years is unacceptable.
The association, which is the largest organization representing the U.S. cattle industry and has about 800,000 members, fixed October as the final deadline for export resumption, considering Bush's visit, and has called on the government and Congress to back its position.
Congress members from farm states who face midterm elections in about one year were quick to react, and they have been calling for economic sanctions against Japan.
For the U.S. industry, Japan was the largest beef market with earnings of about $1.7 billion (some 190 billion yen). If Japan lifts the ban, South Korea, China and other Asian countries will follow suit, a U.S. agricultural department executive said, expressing hope about a "domino effect."
But Japan is not so sure. "I think there will no growth in demand at the beginning," said Shuji Abe, president of Yoshinoya D&C Co., the largest restaurant chain serving "gyudon," a bowl of rice topped with seasoned beef.
The main sales point of American beef is that massive amounts can be procured at low prices. But costs will rise after Japan resumes imports because only cows aged 20 months or younger are allowed for imports, and it is time-consuming and difficult to remove dangerous parts, such as brains and spines.
Imports of Australian beef increased 12.2 percent in fiscal 2003, ended in March 2004, over the year before and showed a sharp year-on-year increase of 39.2 percent in fiscal 2004, ended in March 2005. New Zealand beef also registered a double-digit hike in the seven-month period.
A common view among Japanese companies is that a "restoration" of American beef is questionable. "We won't treat it for a while," said an executive of Seiyo Ltd., a major department store. Aeon Co. and Ito-Yokado Co., both major supermarket chain operators, are also cautious, saying they want to closely watch the market.
The U.S. industry, which is pinning its hopes on Japan, saying that Japanese consumers have the right to enjoy the world's safest U.S. beef, cannot imagine that demand could be sluggish.
A farm ministry executive said that if the U.S. side grows even more frustrated, "it will say without fail that a condition should be eased to include cows aged 30 months and younger" to be allowed for imports.
Michiko Kamiyama, a lawyer representing a civic committee on food safety and supervision, said, "In the last 20 years, Japan's food safety policy has been distorted by U.S. pressure."
"Whether to buy or not is a choice of consumers," said Kiyonori Ota, president of Maruetsu Inc., a department store chain operator, indicating the market also holds an important key once imports are resumed.
